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DOE Estimates LEDs Will Dominate the Lighting Market by 2030

In August 2014, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released the sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications. The study provides predictions on light-emitting diodes (LED) market penetrations and energy savings compared to conventional lighting. The DOE forecasts LED lighting will represent 84% of all sales by lumen-hours in 2030 (compared to 3% in 2013) and reduce energy consumption in the lighting sector by 40% compared to a “no-LED” scenario.

Key Details

  • Advantages of LEDS include compact size, long life and ease and maintenance, resistance to breakage and vibration, and instant-on performance
  • Use of LEDs is growing due to improvements in efficacy (i.e., higher lumens per watt), longer product lifetime, and decreasing prices
  • The DOE estimates lighting accounted for 18% of total electricity use in 2013
  • The DOE estimates LED adoption will result in annual energy savings of 3.0 quads by 2030 – an amount equivalent to the energy consumption of 24 million U.S. households


LED cost and quality of light continues to improve such that LEDs are projected to be the overwhelming choice for lighting. The rapid adoption of LED lighting and other efficient technologies (e.g., appliances) will continue to contribute significantly to the long-term decrease in U.S. load growth.

More Information

DOE: Report Summary

DOE: Full Report

This report is part of the Clean Tech & Sustainability Minute series. To view all featured Minutes, please click here.

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Contributing Authors

Paul Quinlan Clean Tech Manager

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